Qarabag vs Chelsea: Champions League Matchday 4 Prediction & Preview - November 2025

Match Details:

• Fixture: Qarabag vs Chelsea
• Competition: UEFA Champions League (League Phase, Matchday 4, 2025/26 Season)
• Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan
• Date: Wednesday, November 5, 2025
• Kick-Off: 5:45 PM GMT (8:45 PM EAT)

Qarabag vs Chelsea Prediction: Can the Blues Navigate Tricky Baku Test?

Qarabag hosts Chelsea at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in a Champions League fixture that historically proves challenging for visiting European giants. The Azerbaijani champions have demonstrated their ability to cause upsets on home soil, while Enzo Maresca's Chelsea desperately needs a crucial away win to secure their progress in the league phase.

The Qarabag vs Chelsea tie sees the home side leveraging their fortress advantage, having already secured impressive victories against teams like Benfica and FC Copenhagen in the Champions League. Chelsea's form has been strong at Stamford Bridge but inconsistent on the road, with a notable loss to Bayern Munich in Germany exposing vulnerabilities. The Blues are expected to dominate possession, but must remain wary of Qarabag's potent counter-attack.

Champions League Standings: Chelsea Pushing for Top 10 Finish

Chelsea is well-placed but needs to convert their points into wins to consolidate their position in the top 10. Qarabag is surprisingly in the mix for a knockout spot, sitting level points with the Blues in this UEFA Champions League 2025/26 campaign.

Recent Form Analysis: Qarabag's Home Fortress vs Chelsea's Away Struggles

Qarabag Form (Last 5 Games, all competitions): W-W-L-D-W

• Overall PPG (Champions League): 1.67
• Home PPG (Champions League): 3.00

Chelsea Form (Last 5 Games, all competitions): W-W-L-W-W

• Overall PPG (Champions League): 2.00
• Away PPG (Champions League): 0.00

Qarabag boasts a perfect home record in the Champions League, giving them significant confidence heading into this encounter. Chelsea's poor away form in the competition is a major concern for Maresca as his side travels to Baku.

Head-to-Head Record: Chelsea's Historical Dominance

The historical head-to-head record is heavily in favor of Chelsea, who previously secured a 6-0 home win and a 4-0 away win against Qarabag in the 2017/18 Champions League group stage.

Last Meeting: Qarabag 0-4 Chelsea (November 2017, Champions League)

Qarabag will be looking to prove they are a much-improved side since those one-sided encounters eight years ago.

Team News & Injury Updates

Chelsea Injury Report

• Cole Palmer (Midfielder): Ruled out with a l groin injury
• Benoît Badiashile (Defender): Ruled out with a muscle injury
• Dario Esugo( Midfielder): Thigh Injury
• Levi Colwill ( Defender): ACL
• Available Key Players: Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernández, and Pedro Neto are all fit and available

Maresca is missing key defensive personnel, which could expose Chelsea to Qarabag's dangerous counter-attacks at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium.

Tactical Breakdown: What to Expect from Both Sides

Chelsea: Possession-Based Breakthrough Strategy

Chelsea will control the ball (expected 70%+ possession) and patiently attempt to break down Qarabag's two compact banks of four. They will rely heavily on the creativity of Enzo Fernández and Cole Palmer to unlock the defense.

• Formation Focus: Attacking 4-3-3 with fluid movement
• Exploitation Strategy: Using the width of their full-backs and the speed of their attacking trio
• Key Players: Enzo Fernández (midfield pivot), Estevao (creative spark), Tyrique George (striker)

Probable Starting Line-ups

Chelsea Predicted XI (4-3-3)

GK: Sánchez
DEF: Gusto, Tosin (C), Acheampong, Hato
MID: Santos, Enzo Fernández, Bounanote
FWD: Gittens, Tyrique, Estevao

Qarabag vs Chelsea Final Score Prediction

Qarabag's impressive home form will make this a tough challenge for Chelsea, who may struggle to convert their possession dominance into clear-cut chances. However, the superior individual quality of the Chelsea squad should eventually tell, securing a narrow but vital victory in Baku.

Final Score Prediction: Qarabag 1-2 Chelsea

Betting Tips for Qarabag vs Chelsea

• Chelsea to Win & Both Teams to Score (Yes) - Value at 3.50 odds
• Tyrique George Anytime Goalscorer - 2.75 odds
• Chelsea to Score the Winning Goal in the Second Half - 2.20 odds
• Under 3.5 Total Goals - 1.65 odds

Why This Champions League Match Matters

For Chelsea

A win is essential to avoid dropping into the knockout play-off bracket and maintains their push for a top-10 league-phase finish. With fixtures against tougher opponents ahead, securing three points in Baku is crucial for Maresca's men.

For Qarabag

A positive result against a club of Chelsea's stature would be a monumental achievement, keeping their dreams of a historic Champions League knockout spot alive and enhancing their coefficient ranking for future European campaigns.

Related Reading:

• Chelsea's Champions League Campaign Analysis
• Qarabag's Historic European Journey
• Champions League League Phase Standings & Format Explained

Last Updated: November 3, 2025 | Next Update: Post-Match Analysis - November 6, 2025